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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.20vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.64+4.43vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+7.57vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+5.65vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.00vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.82+3.76vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99+2.01vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+2.37vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.45+2.39vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43+1.76vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.53+0.15vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.79-1.72vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.30-1.15vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.39-6.88vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.23-7.08vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.12-7.48vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.33-9.31vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston3.10-9.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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6.43Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.57Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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9.65Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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9.0St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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9.76Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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9.01U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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10.37University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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11.39Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.76Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.15Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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10.28Georgetown University2.790.0%1st Place
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11.85Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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7.12Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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7.92University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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8.52Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.69Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.32College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% |
| William Michels | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| Kelly Holthus | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 15.8% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Jack Egan | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Guthrie Braun | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.