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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+8.99vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+6.68vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+5.25vs Predicted
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4Harvard University3.64+2.28vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.95vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.39+1.27vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.69+3.33vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.45+3.25vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.66+1.47vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.79+0.21vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.30+1.08vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.62vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.43-1.69vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.53-3.26vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.10-6.57vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College2.82-6.17vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-7.78vs Predicted
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18Brown University3.33-10.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.99Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
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8.68Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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6.28Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.27Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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10.33Cornell University2.690.0%1st Place
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11.25Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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10.47University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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10.21Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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12.08Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.38U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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11.31Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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10.74Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.43College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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9.83Dartmouth College2.820.0%1st Place
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9.22St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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7.32Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Jack Egan | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.0% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Bridget Green | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% |
| Kelly Holthus | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 16.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| William Michels | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.