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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.45+10.51vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.39+5.53vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+8.77vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.82+5.63vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+5.14vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+3.10vs Predicted
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7University of Miami2.66+3.49vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.99+0.95vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston3.10-0.51vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.33-2.22vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.64-4.55vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.12-3.14vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island3.23-5.15vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-4.31vs Predicted
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15Boston College2.53-4.04vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.30-3.88vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.79-6.97vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.81-8.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.51Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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7.53Stanford University3.390.1%1st Place
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11.77Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.63Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.14Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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8.49College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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7.78Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.45Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.86Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.85University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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9.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.96Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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12.12Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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10.03Georgetown University2.790.1%1st Place
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9.65Bowdoin College2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holthus | 3.9% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 12.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| William Michels | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% |
| Bridget Green | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 10.0% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Jack Egan | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 16.7% |
| Mateo Di Blasi | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.