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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University2.00+7.15vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.17+5.51vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+7.57vs Predicted
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4Fordham University2.35+2.59vs Predicted
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5Florida State University2.12+2.39vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+0.44vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.24+3.89vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+3.46vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-3.58vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.69-0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan-0.22+4.44vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.50-1.78vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.62-3.73vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.37-0.43vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin-0.26+0.51vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania2.13-8.47vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-10.89vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.54-8.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.15Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.51Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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10.57George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.59Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.39Florida State University2.120.1%1st Place
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6.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.89Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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5.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.37Boston University1.690.1%1st Place
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15.44University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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10.22Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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9.27Eckerd College1.620.0%1st Place
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13.57SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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15.51University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
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7.53University of Pennsylvania2.130.1%1st Place
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6.11University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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9.58Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Owen Bannasch | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 12.1% | 13.6% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Jack Hammett | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 21.3% | 38.2% |
| Henry Scholz | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 18.2% | 13.8% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 10.9% | 23.2% | 36.6% |
| Cole Woodworth | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Henry Boeger | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.