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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University2.17+6.48vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.00+6.09vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.24+8.10vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+1.47vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.47+1.18vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.39+4.34vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-0.48vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.35-1.41vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.37+4.90vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.54-0.04vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+0.59vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.50-1.71vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-3.05vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.62-4.91vs Predicted
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15Florida State University2.12-7.56vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.22-0.57vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-10.80vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-0.26-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.48Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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8.09Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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11.1Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.47Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.18University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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10.34George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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6.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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6.59Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.9SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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9.96Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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11.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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10.29Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
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9.95Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.09Eckerd College1.620.1%1st Place
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7.44Florida State University2.120.1%1st Place
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15.43University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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6.2University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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15.38University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Bannasch | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 1.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 13.7% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson McAliley | 10.1% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 18.5% | 15.9% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% |
| Henry Scholz | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Peter Foley | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 35.4% |
| Henry Boeger | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 22.7% | 36.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.