← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+5.70vs Predicted
-
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.70vs Predicted
-
3Fordham University2.35+3.78vs Predicted
-
4Old Dominion University1.24+6.75vs Predicted
-
5Jacksonville University2.17+2.32vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+5.53vs Predicted
-
7Webb Institute1.54+2.77vs Predicted
-
8Florida State University2.12-0.55vs Predicted
-
9Northeastern University2.00-1.14vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University1.39+0.53vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-4.78vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College1.50-1.80vs Predicted
-
13University of Pennsylvania2.47-6.90vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College0.37-0.31vs Predicted
-
15Boston University1.44-4.89vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan-0.22-0.55vs Predicted
-
17University of Wisconsin-0.26-1.43vs Predicted
-
18Eckerd College1.62-8.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
5.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
-
6.78Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
-
10.75Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
7.32Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
-
11.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
-
9.77Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
-
7.45Florida State University2.120.1%1st Place
-
7.86Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
-
10.53George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
-
6.22University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
-
10.2Connecticut College1.500.0%1st Place
-
6.1University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
-
13.69SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
-
10.11Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
-
15.45University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
-
15.57University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
-
9.25Eckerd College1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 10.7% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Owen Bannasch | 7.3% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Reed McAllister | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 3.5% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Peter Foley | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| Henry Boeger | 10.9% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Henry Scholz | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Jackson McAliley | 11.5% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 16.3% | 20.4% | 12.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 21.0% | 37.2% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 23.9% | 37.6% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.