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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.47+4.77vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University2.00+5.50vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University2.17+4.03vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+5.29vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.14vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College0.37+7.28vs Predicted
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7Florida State University2.12+0.23vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.35-1.75vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-2.60vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.24+0.31vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.44-1.26vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.62-3.04vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-7.07vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07-2.94vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.22-0.51vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.39-6.11vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-0.26-2.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.77University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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7.5Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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7.03Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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9.29Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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5.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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13.28SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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7.23Florida State University2.120.1%1st Place
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6.25Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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10.31Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.74Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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8.96Eckerd College1.620.0%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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14.49University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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9.89George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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14.72University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson McAliley | 12.2% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.1% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 14.0% | 13.5% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 19.7% | 19.4% | 15.5% |
| Peter Foley | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Zils | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 1.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Henry Boeger | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 21.0% | 36.5% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 22.3% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.