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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+4.19vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.14vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.00+4.62vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.54+5.28vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.17+1.77vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.35+0.53vs Predicted
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7Florida State University2.12+0.17vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.07+2.73vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.47-2.88vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College0.37+3.14vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.24-0.51vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.44-2.42vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.51-7.08vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.39-4.04vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.62-5.99vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.22-1.33vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-0.26-2.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.19Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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6.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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7.62Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.28Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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6.77Jacksonville University2.170.1%1st Place
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6.53Fordham University2.350.1%1st Place
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7.17Florida State University2.120.1%1st Place
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10.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.070.0%1st Place
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6.12University of Pennsylvania2.470.1%1st Place
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13.14SUNY Maritime College0.370.0%1st Place
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10.49Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.58Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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5.92University of California at Santa Barbara2.510.1%1st Place
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9.96George Washington University1.390.0%1st Place
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9.01Eckerd College1.620.0%1st Place
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14.67University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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14.71University of Wisconsin-0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 14.4% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Everett Botwinick | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Owen Bannasch | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jacob Zils | 8.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Foley | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Jackson McAliley | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 19.6% | 13.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 2.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Henry Boeger | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Pj Rodrigues | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack Hammett | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 22.7% | 36.1% |
| Nigel Yu | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 20.7% | 38.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.