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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.08+8.60vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.60+5.69vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+2.42vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.37+4.20vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.01+1.00vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.64+1.31vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.06-1.17vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.03vs Predicted
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9Jacksonville University1.61-1.64vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.23-0.96vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.89-0.77vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.52vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-8.16vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute0.07-1.32vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan-0.30-0.95vs Predicted
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16Florida State University0.42-4.11vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.37-2.65vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-1.21-2.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.6Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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7.69Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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5.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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8.2Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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6.0Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.31Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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8.03University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.36Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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9.04Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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10.23George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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12.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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4.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.2%1st Place
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12.68Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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14.05University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
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11.89Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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14.35SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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15.99University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Goodwin | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Porter Bell | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| JJ Klempen | 11.1% | 12.6% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Thress | 11.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.3% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 10.3% | 5.3% |
| Robert Ulmer | 15.6% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 7.2% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 18.9% | 14.7% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 21.3% | 17.6% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 19.6% | 47.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.