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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+4.56vs Predicted
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2George Washington University0.89+8.43vs Predicted
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3Eckerd College1.64+4.52vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.08+5.34vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+3.28vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.06-0.10vs Predicted
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7Florida State University0.42+4.84vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-2.03vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.23-0.15vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.61-2.33vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin-1.21+5.18vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.60-4.17vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.30+0.97vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-6.06vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.75vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.06-2.48vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute0.07-3.85vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-13.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.56Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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10.43George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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7.52Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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9.34Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.28Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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5.9University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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11.84Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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5.97Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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8.85Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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7.67Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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16.18University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
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7.83Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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13.97University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
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7.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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12.25U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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13.52SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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13.15Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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4.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Joshua Dillon | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.8% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Igoe | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 10.3% | 14.7% | 53.8% |
| Porter Bell | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 15.0% | 21.4% | 14.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 5.1% |
| Luke Barker | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 15.1% | 17.6% | 9.9% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 9.7% |
| Robert Ulmer | 14.7% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.