← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Old Dominion University1.08+8.55vs Predicted
-
2Northeastern University1.37+6.56vs Predicted
-
3Eckerd College1.64+4.51vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.72vs Predicted
-
5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.04vs Predicted
-
6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23-0.67vs Predicted
-
7Boston University1.60+0.49vs Predicted
-
8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-3.12vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.19vs Predicted
-
10George Washington University0.89+0.33vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University2.01-4.86vs Predicted
-
12Jacksonville University1.61-4.30vs Predicted
-
13Florida State University0.42-1.35vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.01vs Predicted
-
15Connecticut College1.23-6.26vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan-0.30-1.87vs Predicted
-
17University of Wisconsin-1.21-0.78vs Predicted
-
180.07-5.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.55Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
-
8.56Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
-
7.51Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
-
5.72University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
-
8.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
-
5.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
-
7.49Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
-
4.88Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.2%1st Place
-
12.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
-
10.33George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
-
6.14Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
-
7.7Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
-
11.65Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
-
14.01SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
-
8.74Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
-
14.13University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
-
16.22University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
-
12.80.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Goodwin | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| JJ Klempen | 11.7% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 15.3% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 13.9% | 21.8% | 15.1% |
| William Hurd | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 14.3% | 19.9% | 16.0% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 52.7% |
| Marc Leyk | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 11.6% | 6.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.