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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+4.39vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.96vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.61+4.56vs Predicted
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4University of Michigan-0.30+9.94vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+3.23vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.08+3.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.02vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.60-0.67vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College-0.37+5.15vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.64-2.49vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.89-0.77vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-6.86vs Predicted
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13Florida State University0.42-1.42vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.01-1.13vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College1.23-6.28vs Predicted
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16Fordham University2.01-9.96vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute0.07-3.98vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-1.21-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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5.96University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.56Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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13.94University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
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8.23Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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9.33Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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8.02University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.33Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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14.15SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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7.51Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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10.23George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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5.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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11.58Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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12.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.010.0%1st Place
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8.72Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.04Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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13.02Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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16.0University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 12.6% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 9.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 14.2% | 19.1% | 15.5% |
| Joshua Dillon | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Porter Bell | 6.8% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 15.2% | 20.4% | 13.9% |
| Jordan Vieira | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Robert Ulmer | 14.1% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Robert Finora | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 8.4% |
| William Hurd | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Thress | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 13.8% | 7.0% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 18.3% | 49.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.