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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+4.52vs Predicted
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2Eckerd College1.64+5.54vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.95vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.96vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.01+1.02vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.61+1.41vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.23+1.85vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.60-0.61vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.37-0.74vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.89+0.39vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-6.03vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+0.54vs Predicted
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13University of Michigan-0.30+0.88vs Predicted
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14Florida State University0.42-2.47vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.37-0.75vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.08-6.56vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute0.07-3.93vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin-1.21-1.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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7.54Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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5.95University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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6.02Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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7.41Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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8.85Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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7.39Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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8.26Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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10.39George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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4.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.2%1st Place
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12.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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13.88University of Michigan-0.300.0%1st Place
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11.53Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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14.25SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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13.07Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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16.02University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 11.8% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 10.0% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Thress | 10.8% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Hurd | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Porter Bell | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 15.4% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 6.1% |
| Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 12.9% | 19.8% | 14.6% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 14.3% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 7.4% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 18.7% | 48.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.