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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+4.41vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.61+5.01vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+2.03vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+0.73vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.60+1.94vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.01-0.13vs Predicted
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7George Washington University0.89+2.64vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.46vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.64-1.87vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan-0.07+2.66vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.37-2.99vs Predicted
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12Florida State University0.42-0.83vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.08-4.03vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.28vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute0.07-2.77vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin-1.21-0.63vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.37-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.41University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.01Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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5.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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4.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.2%1st Place
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6.94Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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5.87Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.64George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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7.54University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.13Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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12.66University of Michigan-0.070.0%1st Place
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8.01Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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11.17Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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8.97Old Dominion University1.080.0%1st Place
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11.72U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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12.23Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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15.37University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
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13.57SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JJ Klempen | 13.4% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 15.7% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Porter Bell | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| Ted McDonough | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Vieira | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alden Gort | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 16.5% | 9.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
| Blake Goodwin | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 5.5% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 7.6% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 54.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 15.2% | 22.6% | 18.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.