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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+3.97vs Predicted
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2Florida State University0.42+9.21vs Predicted
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3George Washington University0.89+6.61vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.32+4.25vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.01+0.73vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.37+2.17vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan-0.07+5.81vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+3.52vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.60-1.62vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.61-2.92vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.64-3.78vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.06+0.71vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute0.07-0.56vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-9.17vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.06-9.31vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin-1.21-0.56vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-9.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.1%1st Place
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11.21Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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9.61George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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8.25Old Dominion University1.320.1%1st Place
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5.73Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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8.17Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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12.81University of Michigan-0.070.0%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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7.38Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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7.08Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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7.22Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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12.71SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.44Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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4.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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5.69University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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15.44University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
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7.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 14.2% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 3.9% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| Pierce Brindley | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Thress | 10.3% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Alden Gort | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 19.7% | 10.3% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 6.0% |
| Porter Bell | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Vieira | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Luke Barker | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 17.3% | 12.0% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 16.2% | 15.7% | 9.5% |
| Robert Ulmer | 14.5% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 15.4% | 55.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.