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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.23+3.97vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+2.67vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.32+5.17vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.60+3.19vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.37+2.88vs Predicted
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6Florida State University0.42+5.47vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute0.07+5.31vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.01-2.31vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.06-3.17vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.89-0.36vs Predicted
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11Eckerd College1.64-3.77vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.61-4.85vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-5.06vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.06-1.14vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-3.29vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-0.07-3.14vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-1.21-1.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.230.2%1st Place
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4.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.2%1st Place
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8.17Old Dominion University1.320.0%1st Place
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7.19Boston University1.600.1%1st Place
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7.88Northeastern University1.370.1%1st Place
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11.47Florida State University0.420.0%1st Place
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12.31Webb Institute0.070.0%1st Place
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5.69Fordham University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.83University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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9.64George Washington University0.890.0%1st Place
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7.23Eckerd College1.640.1%1st Place
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7.15Jacksonville University1.610.1%1st Place
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7.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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12.86SUNY Maritime College-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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12.86University of Michigan-0.070.0%1st Place
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15.43University of Wisconsin-1.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Klempen | 15.3% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 15.7% | 14.2% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pierce Brindley | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Porter Bell | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Carter Weatherilt | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 4.4% |
| Marc Leyk | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Lucas Thress | 11.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Jordan Vieira | 7.3% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Luke Barker | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 21.1% | 11.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 6.1% |
| Alden Gort | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 17.0% | 12.7% |
| Erin McDonagh | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 56.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.