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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+6.02vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.81vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.47+2.60vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.64+4.18vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+5.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+1.14vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.71+1.06vs Predicted
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8San Diego State University-0.19+3.16vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.23-2.76vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.40-0.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-2.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.22+2.76vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University-0.56-0.61vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.13+0.02vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.43-2.96vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.75-2.75vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.16-2.59vs Predicted
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18University of Hawaii2.38-14.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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4.81California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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5.6University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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10.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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7.14University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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8.06University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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11.16San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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6.24Northwestern University1.230.1%1st Place
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9.4University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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8.81University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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14.76University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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12.39Texas A&M University-0.560.0%1st Place
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14.02University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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12.04University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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13.25Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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14.41Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
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3.11University of Hawaii2.380.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 11.4% | 13.1% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Florence Duff | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Erisman | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Jake Weinstein | 7.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Rigel Mummers | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 16.7% | 27.8% |
| Ryan Ingram | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 7.3% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 16.6% | 19.4% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 12.0% |
| Andrew Down | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 18.1% | 22.1% |
| Erik Anderson | 27.8% | 21.8% | 17.0% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.