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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+6.27vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+5.01vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.47+2.64vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.64+4.19vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy1.75-0.29vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.19+5.33vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University1.23-0.76vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii2.38-4.87vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.40+0.08vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-1.13vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43+1.18vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University-0.56+0.88vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-2.54vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.71-6.21vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.13-0.76vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.22-1.42vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-1.16-2.55vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.75-5.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.27University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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7.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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5.64University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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8.19University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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4.71California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.2%1st Place
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11.33San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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6.24Northwestern University1.230.1%1st Place
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3.13University of Hawaii2.380.3%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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12.18University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.88Texas A&M University-0.560.0%1st Place
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10.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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7.79University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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14.24University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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14.58University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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14.45Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
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12.95Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Erisman | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Luke Harris | 9.0% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 15.4% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.7% |
| Jake Weinstein | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 28.1% | 21.1% | 14.9% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 6.1% |
| Ryan Ingram | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 8.8% |
| Florence Duff | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| Rigel Mummers | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 15.8% | 25.4% |
| Andrew Down | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 17.8% | 23.6% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.4% | 9.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.