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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.09+5.62vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.75+2.46vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.64+5.18vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.47+1.16vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara0.97+1.79vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+0.58vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02+3.45vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.40+0.84vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.23-3.08vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.00vs Predicted
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11Texas A&M University-0.56+1.57vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.13+2.47vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.19-1.99vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.22+0.21vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-6.63vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.75-2.87vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-0.43-4.89vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-1.16-3.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62University of Hawaii1.090.1%1st Place
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4.46California Poly Maritime Academy1.750.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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5.16University of Southern California1.470.1%1st Place
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6.79University of California at Santa Barbara0.970.1%1st Place
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6.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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10.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.0%1st Place
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8.84University of California at Berkeley0.400.0%1st Place
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5.92Northwestern University1.230.1%1st Place
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8.0University of California at Berkeley0.710.1%1st Place
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12.57Texas A&M University-0.560.0%1st Place
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14.47University of California at San Diego-1.130.0%1st Place
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11.01San Diego State University-0.190.0%1st Place
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14.21University of California at Los Angeles-1.220.0%1st Place
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8.37University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.1%1st Place
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13.13Arizona State University-0.750.0%1st Place
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12.11University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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14.14Arizona State University-1.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Bonsager | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 13.7% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Luke Harris | 13.9% | 14.3% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Florence Duff | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jake Weinstein | 9.0% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Ingram | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 9.1% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 25.4% |
| Owen Gormely | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 23.3% |
| Blake Roberts | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 10.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Andrew Down | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 19.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.