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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.91vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.23+1.20vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.20+2.81vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.76+0.32vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+4.92vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-1.79+7.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-1.73+5.81vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-1.36vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.35+2.49vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-1.12+0.36vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.60+1.36vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-2.94+5.96vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26-1.88vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-2.05+0.71vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.79vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-2.62+0.59vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-3.64vs Predicted
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18Santa Clara University-1.98-3.88vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-2.99-1.14vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-1.53-7.66vs Predicted
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21San Diego State University-1.64-8.33vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-2.68-5.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.3%1st Place
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3.2San Diego State University1.230.2%1st Place
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5.81California Poly Maritime Academy0.200.1%1st Place
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4.32University of California at Santa Cruz0.760.1%1st Place
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9.92University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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13.33Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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12.81University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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6.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.1%1st Place
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11.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.350.0%1st Place
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10.36University of California at Santa Cruz-1.120.0%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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17.96University of California at Davis-2.940.0%1st Place
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11.12University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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14.71California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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12.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
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16.59University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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13.36University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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14.12Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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17.86California State University Monterey Bay-2.990.0%1st Place
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12.34San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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12.67San Diego State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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16.91University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 26.6% | 22.5% | 18.9% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 24.7% | 20.1% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 12.4% | 16.6% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Micaela Jorcino | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Emilia McNabb | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| Liam Williams | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
| Philip Yang | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 27.3% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.