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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.43+1.84vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.23+1.22vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.76+1.27vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+2.34vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.20+0.62vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-1.12+4.17vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley-1.73+5.55vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.79+5.15vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+2.61vs Predicted
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10Santa Clara University-1.98+3.76vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.60+1.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-2.34vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-0.11vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.53-1.77vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26-3.86vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-2.62+0.29vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-2.99+0.90vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.64-5.63vs Predicted
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19California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-5.06vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis-2.68-3.25vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-2.94-3.60vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-5.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.84California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.3%1st Place
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3.22San Diego State University1.230.2%1st Place
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4.27University of California at Santa Cruz0.760.1%1st Place
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6.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.1%1st Place
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5.62California Poly Maritime Academy0.200.1%1st Place
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10.17University of California at Santa Cruz-1.120.0%1st Place
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12.55University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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13.15Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
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13.76Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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9.66University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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12.89University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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12.23San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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11.14University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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16.29University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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17.9California State University Monterey Bay-2.990.0%1st Place
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12.37San Diego State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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13.94California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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16.75University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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17.4University of California at Davis-2.940.0%1st Place
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16.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Myers | 28.2% | 23.3% | 18.6% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 24.2% | 21.0% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 12.5% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 9.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia McNabb | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Liam Williams | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Maria Gunness | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 12.7% |
| Philip Yang | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 23.9% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 14.8% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 15.4% | 22.8% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 13.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.