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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.23+2.30vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.20+3.70vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-0.06vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-1.12+6.52vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.76-0.70vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+0.52vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+3.93vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University-1.98+6.23vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-1.60+3.55vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+1.85vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.79+2.13vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.35-0.53vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-1.73+0.06vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-2.05+0.76vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.74-1.52vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.68+0.84vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-2.99+1.13vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.53-5.81vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-2.62-2.39vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-1.64-7.18vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98-11.08vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-2.94-4.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3San Diego State University1.230.2%1st Place
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5.7California Poly Maritime Academy0.200.1%1st Place
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2.94California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.3%1st Place
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10.52University of California at Santa Cruz-1.120.0%1st Place
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4.3University of California at Santa Cruz0.760.2%1st Place
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6.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.1%1st Place
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10.93University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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14.23Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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12.55University of California at Berkeley-1.600.0%1st Place
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11.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
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13.13Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.350.0%1st Place
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13.06University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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14.76California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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13.48University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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16.84University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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18.13California State University Monterey Bay-2.990.0%1st Place
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12.19San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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16.61University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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12.82San Diego State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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9.92University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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17.74University of California at Davis-2.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 22.8% | 19.4% | 18.2% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 26.6% | 23.2% | 18.7% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia McNabb | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Buster Baylis | 15.1% | 14.3% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Micaela Jorcino | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Liam Williams | 0.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 17.2% |
| Philip Yang | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 28.3% |
| Marley Daniel | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 13.4% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 22.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.