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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.20+4.68vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.23+1.25vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.76+1.25vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.43-1.11vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.98+4.68vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-1.74+6.89vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-0.75vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+3.72vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-1.12+1.20vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-1.26+0.77vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University-1.98+2.74vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.79+1.03vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-1.54-1.05vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.62+2.63vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-1.73-1.88vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-2.99+1.60vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-2.94+0.68vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-2.68-1.37vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-1.53-7.31vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-1.64-7.46vs Predicted
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21California State University Monterey Bay-2.05-6.94vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.73-5.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.68California Poly Maritime Academy0.200.1%1st Place
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3.25San Diego State University1.230.2%1st Place
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4.25University of California at Santa Cruz0.760.1%1st Place
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2.89California Poly Maritime Academy1.430.3%1st Place
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9.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.980.0%1st Place
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12.89University of California at Los Angeles-1.740.0%1st Place
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6.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.1%1st Place
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11.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.0%1st Place
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10.2University of California at Santa Cruz-1.120.0%1st Place
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10.77University of California at Santa Barbara-1.260.0%1st Place
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13.74Santa Clara University-1.980.0%1st Place
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13.03Arizona State University-1.790.0%1st Place
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11.95University of California at Berkeley-1.540.0%1st Place
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16.63University of California at San Diego-2.620.0%1st Place
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13.12University of California at Berkeley-1.730.0%1st Place
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17.6California State University Monterey Bay-2.990.0%1st Place
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17.68University of California at Davis-2.940.0%1st Place
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16.63University of California at Davis-2.680.0%1st Place
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11.69San Diego State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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12.54San Diego State University-1.640.0%1st Place
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14.06California State University Monterey Bay-2.050.0%1st Place
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16.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Perez | 7.4% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 23.4% | 20.9% | 16.1% | 14.7% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 13.0% | 15.5% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 27.4% | 23.2% | 18.6% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Liam Williams | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Emilia McNabb | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Camden Wacha | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Philip Yang | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 24.2% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 22.4% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 13.2% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 14.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.