Race 4A

cedarfest

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Jack Rutherford 5.2% 7.7% 7.9% 9.6% 11.7% 13.2% 14.6% 12.8% 10.3% 5.4% 1.3% 0.3%
Arden Carleton 40.6% 24.4% 16.6% 9.8% 5.3% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kassidy Kennedy 2.6% 3.4% 4.1% 5.4% 6.1% 9.0% 11.4% 13.7% 16.8% 18.4% 7.9% 1.2%
Emily Williams 6.1% 8.9% 11.5% 12.4% 14.9% 13.6% 12.2% 9.9% 6.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Alex Day 11.0% 13.8% 14.5% 15.9% 11.8% 13.1% 7.9% 6.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Carly Irwin 4.2% 6.2% 6.9% 8.5% 9.6% 12.4% 14.1% 14.1% 13.6% 8.0% 2.3% 0.1%
Ryan Dodge 9.0% 8.9% 12.3% 13.1% 13.6% 11.7% 12.2% 10.6% 4.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1%
Keegan Aerts 1.2% 2.6% 3.2% 3.8% 4.4% 8.0% 7.5% 11.8% 15.6% 23.2% 16.6% 2.1%
Marco Constantini 16.9% 19.8% 18.6% 15.0% 13.6% 7.2% 5.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
George Prokop 2.2% 3.3% 3.2% 4.4% 6.2% 7.0% 10.1% 13.2% 18.9% 18.2% 11.3% 2.0%
Adam Bryan 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 2.0% 3.3% 11.4% 79.4%
Tiegan Witte 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.5% 2.4% 1.5% 3.5% 4.3% 7.1% 15.4% 47.2% 14.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.