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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hillsdale College0.41+1.22vs Predicted
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2Hope College-1.53+3.77vs Predicted
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3Ohio State University-1.27+2.19vs Predicted
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4University of Toledo-2.31+3.59vs Predicted
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5Purdue University-0.88-0.64vs Predicted
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6Northern Michigan University-0.44-2.47vs Predicted
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7Grand Valley State University-1.75-0.80vs Predicted
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8Michigan State University-1.91-1.37vs Predicted
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9Western Michigan University-2.71-0.71vs Predicted
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10Michigan State University-1.91-3.44vs Predicted
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11Miami University-3.73-0.86vs Predicted
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12Saginaw Valley State University-5.16-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.22Hillsdale College0.410.4%1st Place
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5.77Hope College-1.530.0%1st Place
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5.19Ohio State University-1.270.1%1st Place
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7.59University of Toledo-2.310.0%1st Place
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4.36Purdue University-0.880.1%1st Place
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3.53Northern Michigan University-0.440.2%1st Place
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6.2Grand Valley State University-1.750.1%1st Place
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6.63Michigan State University-1.910.0%1st Place
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8.29Western Michigan University-2.710.0%1st Place
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6.56Michigan State University-1.910.0%1st Place
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10.14Miami University-3.730.0%1st Place
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11.52Saginaw Valley State University-5.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arden Carleton | 39.1% | 28.3% | 16.7% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Rutherford | 4.6% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Emily Williams | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Kassidy Kennedy | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 15.4% | 19.0% | 10.0% | 0.9% |
| Alex Day | 11.6% | 12.0% | 16.9% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Marco Constantini | 17.7% | 18.7% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carly Irwin | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Keegan Beyer | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 14.7% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 4.7% | 0.5% |
| Keegan Aerts | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 1.6% |
| Joey Skerbeck | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Tiegan Witte | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 47.8% | 16.9% |
| Adam Bryan | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 12.0% | 79.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.