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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University0.81+7.08vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.51vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.17vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.55-0.52vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.19+2.13vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College-0.37+5.71vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+1.39vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.79+0.36vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.09+1.98vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.17vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-3.19vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-0.66vs Predicted
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13Columbia University0.63-3.95vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.26-7.16vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.08Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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4.51University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.17Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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3.48Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.13U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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11.71SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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8.39St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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8.36Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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10.98Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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6.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.81Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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9.05Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.84George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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12.32Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianna Dewey | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.5% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 24.6% | 21.4% | 17.7% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 22.9% | 17.7% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 19.3% | 22.3% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 13.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.8% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 16.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 3.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 12.7% | 17.5% | 34.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.