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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.52vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.79+6.16vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.10vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.04vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.55-1.45vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+5.21vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.63+1.77vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+0.45vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.81-0.77vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.10vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-3.26vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.37-0.08vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.26-5.91vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-1.60vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.09-4.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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8.16Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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3.1Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
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7.04U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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3.55Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.77Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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8.45St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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8.23Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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6.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.74Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.92SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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7.09George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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12.4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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10.9Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 14.2% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| Bridget Green | 26.2% | 21.7% | 16.9% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 19.6% | 21.2% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 16.3% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 20.5% | 24.1% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 17.9% | 34.6% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 13.5% | 17.9% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.