← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.55+2.44vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.67vs Predicted
-
3Cornell University2.69+0.10vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.05vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University0.81+3.30vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+2.52vs Predicted
-
7University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.41vs Predicted
-
8Columbia University0.63+0.84vs Predicted
-
9Christopher Newport University0.79-0.71vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University0.99-2.19vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+0.15vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University1.26-4.93vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College-0.37-1.19vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University-0.09-3.05vs Predicted
-
15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.44Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
-
6.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
-
3.1Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
-
7.05U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
-
8.3Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.52St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
-
4.59University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
-
8.84Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
-
8.29Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
7.81Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
-
11.15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
-
7.07George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
-
11.81SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
-
10.95Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
-
12.4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 23.2% | 20.9% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Bridget Green | 26.7% | 21.5% | 16.4% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.2% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 18.7% | 24.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 16.5% | 12.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 36.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.