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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+2.48vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+1.09vs Predicted
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3Fordham University0.99+4.62vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.58vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.81+3.27vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+2.52vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.79+1.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.92vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.26-2.16vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.09vs Predicted
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11Columbia University0.63-2.16vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.37-0.08vs Predicted
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13Princeton University-0.09-1.87vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-1.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-3.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.48Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.09Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
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7.62Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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4.58University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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8.27Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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8.52St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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8.26Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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6.84George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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6.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.84Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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11.92SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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11.13Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.39Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 22.4% | 20.5% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 26.6% | 21.8% | 16.9% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.6% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Ava Farley | 5.0% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.7% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 18.6% | 23.7% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 19.3% | 33.5% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 19.2% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.