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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.69+2.15vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.26+4.71vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.19+4.01vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+0.56vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+6.10vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.81+2.29vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.55-3.48vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+0.51vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.63-0.20vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-3.11vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-3.25vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79-3.42vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.37-1.14vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-3.07vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
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6.71George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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7.01U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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4.56University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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3.52Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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8.51St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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8.8Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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6.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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8.58Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.86SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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10.93Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.34Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 28.7% | 20.0% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ava Farley | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 17.8% | 16.3% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.7% | 20.5% | 17.4% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 1.8% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 18.5% | 25.3% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 16.5% | 13.2% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 16.7% | 35.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.