← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cornell University2.69+2.19vs Predicted
-
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+4.69vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+8.07vs Predicted
-
4Columbia University0.63+4.80vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University0.81+3.27vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University2.55-2.55vs Predicted
-
7George Washington University1.26-0.17vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.88vs Predicted
-
9Fordham University0.99-1.39vs Predicted
-
10Christopher Newport University0.79-1.57vs Predicted
-
11Princeton University-0.09-0.03vs Predicted
-
12University of Pennsylvania2.06-7.24vs Predicted
-
13St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-4.28vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College-0.37-2.31vs Predicted
-
15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.19Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
-
6.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
-
11.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
-
8.8Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
-
8.27Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
-
3.45Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
-
6.83George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
-
7.12U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
-
7.61Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
-
8.43Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
10.97Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
-
4.76University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
-
8.72St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
-
11.69SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
-
12.41Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Green | 26.4% | 22.3% | 16.1% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 15.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.4% | 20.6% | 19.5% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 7.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Ava Farley | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 14.9% |
| Sofia Segalla | 11.4% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 22.0% | 21.5% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 17.0% | 36.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.