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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.51vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+1.42vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.81+5.14vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.06vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+3.48vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.69-2.82vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-0.26vs Predicted
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8Columbia University0.63+0.85vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+2.11vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.26-3.00vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.99-3.25vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-0.09-0.81vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.79-4.46vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.37-2.31vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.42Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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7.06U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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8.48St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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3.18Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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6.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.85Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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11.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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7.0George Washington University1.260.0%1st Place
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7.75Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.19Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.54Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.69SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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12.34Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 13.8% | 15.7% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Piper Holthus | 21.5% | 22.3% | 15.5% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.0% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Ava Farley | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.2% |
| Bridget Green | 23.8% | 22.6% | 17.9% | 13.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 17.6% | 13.6% |
| Avery Canavan | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 23.4% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 18.4% | 34.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.