← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy1.19+5.98vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University2.69+1.08vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.55vs Predicted
-
4George Washington University1.26+2.87vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University2.55-1.47vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University0.81+2.30vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University0.79+1.29vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College-0.37+3.72vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-2.26vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University0.99-2.23vs Predicted
-
11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+0.19vs Predicted
-
12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-3.30vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University-0.09-1.90vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University0.63-5.19vs Predicted
-
15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.98U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
-
3.08Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
-
4.55University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
-
6.87George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
-
3.53Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
-
8.3Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
-
8.29Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
11.72SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
-
6.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
-
7.77Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
-
11.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
-
8.7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
-
11.1Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
-
8.81Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
-
12.38Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ava Farley | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Bridget Green | 27.0% | 22.3% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.2% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Piper Holthus | 21.5% | 17.6% | 19.5% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 20.1% | 22.9% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 17.1% | 16.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 1.6% |
| Carly Mraz | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 17.8% | 14.4% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 17.0% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.