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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University0.99+6.61vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.06+2.47vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.69+0.13vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.26+2.83vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.55-1.48vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+0.81vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.81+1.25vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.19-0.89vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.79-0.71vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.09+1.07vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.74vs Predicted
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12Columbia University0.63-2.98vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.73vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-5.53vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.61Fordham University0.990.1%1st Place
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4.47University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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3.13Cornell University2.690.2%1st Place
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6.83George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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3.52Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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8.25Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Naval Academy1.190.1%1st Place
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8.29Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.07Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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11.74SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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9.02Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.47St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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12.4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzie Cochran | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.3% | 15.9% | 14.6% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 24.5% | 21.6% | 19.5% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Piper Holthus | 21.0% | 19.8% | 16.7% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Ava Farley | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 18.1% | 14.1% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 13.2% | 17.5% | 24.2% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 1.8% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 18.8% | 34.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.