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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University0.79+7.23vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+1.07vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.06+1.54vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.19+3.04vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.63+3.86vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15+5.16vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University0.81+1.22vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28-1.11vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.26-2.18vs Predicted
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10Fordham University0.99-2.18vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.74vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-3.26vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.55-9.39vs Predicted
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14Princeton University-0.09-3.14vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.23Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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3.07Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
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4.54University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.04U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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8.86Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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11.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.22Old Dominion University0.810.1%1st Place
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6.89Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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6.82George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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7.82Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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11.74SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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8.74St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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3.61Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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10.86Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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12.4Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Watlington | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Bridget Green | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 12.8% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ava Farley | 4.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% |
| Katherine Mason | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 16.6% | 15.2% |
| Gianna Dewey | 5.0% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.0% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 20.2% | 22.6% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Piper Holthus | 19.6% | 18.6% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 13.2% | 16.5% | 13.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 17.2% | 36.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.