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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.55+2.44vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.69+1.10vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.28+3.70vs Predicted
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4Princeton University-0.09+6.97vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.79+3.35vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.63+2.87vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.06-2.42vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University0.81+0.29vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.99-1.36vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy1.19-2.80vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.37+0.73vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.26-4.92vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.15-1.72vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-5.60vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.1Cornell University2.690.3%1st Place
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6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.280.1%1st Place
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10.97Princeton University-0.090.0%1st Place
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8.35Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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8.87Columbia University0.630.0%1st Place
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4.58University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University0.810.0%1st Place
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7.64Fordham University0.990.0%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Naval Academy1.190.0%1st Place
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11.73SUNY Maritime College-0.370.0%1st Place
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7.08George Washington University1.260.1%1st Place
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11.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.150.0%1st Place
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8.4St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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12.39Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 22.9% | 22.1% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bridget Green | 26.6% | 23.4% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 6.9% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Carly Mraz | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 17.8% | 13.7% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 13.3% | 12.4% | 15.3% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 1.6% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Ava Farley | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Nicole Ostapowicz | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 18.0% | 24.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Katherine Mason | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 16.8% | 17.4% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 18.1% | 35.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.