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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.36+2.45vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.34+1.42vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University1.63+2.19vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.41+1.85vs Predicted
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5Columbia University0.45+3.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.28+3.32vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34-0.96vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97-0.76vs Predicted
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9Fordham University0.10+0.79vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.22-3.50vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-1.96vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29-2.59vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College-0.02-2.63vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology-1.37-0.72vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.92-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.45Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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3.42Cornell University2.340.2%1st Place
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5.19Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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5.85University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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8.75Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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9.32U. S. Naval Academy0.280.0%1st Place
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6.04Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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7.24St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.1%1st Place
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9.79Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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6.5George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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9.04Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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10.37SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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13.28Rochester Institute of Technology-1.370.0%1st Place
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12.37Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Doble | 23.5% | 20.4% | 14.0% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Winborne Majette | 22.6% | 22.1% | 15.2% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 10.2% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adra Ivancich | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 1.5% |
| Linnea Forsberg | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Deana Fedulova | 9.0% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Murray | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 3.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 2.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 8.1% |
| Kristen McDonough | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 18.8% | 48.4% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 22.9% | 29.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.