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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.34+2.50vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.36+1.37vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.34+2.99vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.63+1.27vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.41+0.93vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.97+1.21vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.28+2.22vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.29+1.23vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.45-0.26vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.92+2.50vs Predicted
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11Fordham University0.10-1.12vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College-0.02-1.62vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.37-3.77vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.22-7.67vs Predicted
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15Rochester Institute of Technology-1.37-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.5Cornell University2.340.2%1st Place
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3.37Georgetown University2.360.2%1st Place
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5.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.340.1%1st Place
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5.27Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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5.93University of Pennsylvania1.410.1%1st Place
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7.21St. Mary's College of Maryland0.970.0%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Naval Academy0.280.0%1st Place
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9.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.290.0%1st Place
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8.74Columbia University0.450.0%1st Place
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12.5Princeton University-0.920.0%1st Place
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9.88Fordham University0.100.0%1st Place
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10.38SUNY Maritime College-0.020.0%1st Place
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9.23Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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6.33George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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13.19Rochester Institute of Technology-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winborne Majette | 22.5% | 19.3% | 15.5% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Doble | 23.8% | 20.9% | 15.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Deana Fedulova | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Adra Ivancich | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lina Carper | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Linnea Forsberg | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% |
| Annika VanderHorst | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| Eva DeCastro | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| Evelyn Walsh | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 12.5% | 24.8% | 29.7% |
| Lauren Murray | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 6.3% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 15.5% | 13.0% | 5.5% |
| Laura Smith | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 2.4% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Kristen McDonough | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 19.7% | 48.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.