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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.64+3.51vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.23+3.61vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.90+3.67vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.28+4.56vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+2.48vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.14-0.22vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.56+0.70vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.57+3.06vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.37-3.98vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.60+1.25vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.84-4.13vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.10-2.46vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.20-0.89vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-0.26-0.61vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.67-4.21vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan0.57-4.75vs Predicted
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17Bates College-2.03-0.16vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-1.93-1.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Brown University2.640.2%1st Place
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5.61Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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6.67Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.900.1%1st Place
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8.56Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
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7.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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5.78Boston College2.140.1%1st Place
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7.7University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.570.0%1st Place
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5.02Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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11.25Jacksonville University0.600.0%1st Place
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6.87University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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9.54Tufts University1.100.0%1st Place
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12.11Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.200.0%1st Place
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13.39University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
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11.25University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
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16.84Bates College-2.030.0%1st Place
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16.57Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lamm | 16.3% | 14.8% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Kulas | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Balunas | 4.8% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Lech | 10.0% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efe Guder | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ella Demand | 2.7% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Harrison Strom | 13.1% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Darby Smith | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Owen Grainger | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Schmidt | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Evan Tofolo | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 6.0% | 1.1% |
| James Frady | 1.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 23.8% | 13.2% | 3.0% |
| Marco Welch | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Ben Visco | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Georgia Green | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 29.2% | 52.5% |
| Aengus Onken | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 7.5% | 37.1% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.