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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.23+4.65vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.14+3.92vs Predicted
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3University of South Florida1.56+4.83vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.64+0.26vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.84+1.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60+1.50vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.37-1.92vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.90-1.52vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.57+2.15vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.28-1.16vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.67-0.12vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan0.57-0.64vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University0.60-2.14vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.10-4.95vs Predicted
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15Middlebury College-1.93+1.71vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.20-3.64vs Predicted
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17University of New Hampshire-0.26-3.38vs Predicted
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18Bates College-2.03-1.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.65Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
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5.92Boston College2.140.1%1st Place
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7.83University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
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4.26Brown University2.640.2%1st Place
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6.75University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
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5.08Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
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6.48Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.900.1%1st Place
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11.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.570.0%1st Place
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8.84Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.88University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
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11.36University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
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10.86Jacksonville University0.600.0%1st Place
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9.05Tufts University1.100.0%1st Place
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16.71Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
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12.36Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.200.0%1st Place
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13.62University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
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16.68Bates College-2.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan McDonald | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Lech | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Efe Guder | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lamm | 18.2% | 15.8% | 16.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Grainger | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Harrison Strom | 13.0% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Kulas | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Demand | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Dylan Balunas | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
| Ben Visco | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| Darby Smith | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Grant Schmidt | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Aengus Onken | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 33.7% | 45.9% |
| Evan Tofolo | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 17.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| James Frady | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 25.9% | 13.5% | 3.5% |
| Georgia Green | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 32.6% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.