← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Harvard University2.37+4.15vs Predicted
-
2Boston College2.14+3.84vs Predicted
-
3Brown University2.64+1.29vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.57+6.90vs Predicted
-
5University of South Florida1.56+2.55vs Predicted
-
6University of Rhode Island1.84+0.71vs Predicted
-
7University of Vermont0.67+3.72vs Predicted
-
8Jacksonville University0.60+2.90vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University1.10+0.21vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.23-4.40vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.40-2.73vs Predicted
-
12Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.20+0.48vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.60-5.68vs Predicted
-
14Boston University1.41-6.11vs Predicted
-
15University of New Hampshire-0.26-1.46vs Predicted
-
16University of Michigan0.57-4.79vs Predicted
-
17Middlebury College-1.93-0.27vs Predicted
-
18Bates College-2.03-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.15Harvard University2.370.1%1st Place
-
5.84Boston College2.140.1%1st Place
-
4.29Brown University2.640.2%1st Place
-
10.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.570.0%1st Place
-
7.55University of South Florida1.560.1%1st Place
-
6.71University of Rhode Island1.840.1%1st Place
-
10.72University of Vermont0.670.0%1st Place
-
10.9Jacksonville University0.600.0%1st Place
-
9.21Tufts University1.100.0%1st Place
-
5.6Roger Williams University2.230.1%1st Place
-
8.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.400.1%1st Place
-
12.48Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.200.0%1st Place
-
7.32U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.600.1%1st Place
-
7.89Boston University1.410.1%1st Place
-
13.54University of New Hampshire-0.260.0%1st Place
-
11.21University of Michigan0.570.0%1st Place
-
16.73Middlebury College-1.930.0%1st Place
-
16.67Bates College-2.030.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Strom | 13.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Lech | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lamm | 16.2% | 17.4% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ella Demand | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Efe Guder | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Owen Grainger | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Welch | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Darby Smith | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Grant Schmidt | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Tristan McDonald | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conrad Straden | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Evan Tofolo | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 18.0% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Reeser | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Teo | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| James Frady | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 22.6% | 14.9% | 2.3% |
| Ben Visco | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Aengus Onken | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 8.0% | 30.9% | 48.1% |
| Georgia Green | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 33.9% | 46.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.