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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University0.35+8.21vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.80+2.68vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05+4.08vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.38+2.09vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+3.67vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.15+0.99vs Predicted
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7Boston College1.30-0.72vs Predicted
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8Harvard University0.27+1.54vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.89-1.18vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.40-4.07vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.93-3.33vs Predicted
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12Bates College-1.99+3.42vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.80-8.15vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-2.22vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.06-2.52vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-1.61-2.25vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont-0.39-6.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.21Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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4.68Brown University1.800.1%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.1%1st Place
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6.09University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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6.99University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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6.28Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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9.54Harvard University0.270.0%1st Place
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7.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.890.0%1st Place
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5.93Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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7.67Jacksonville University0.930.1%1st Place
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15.42Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
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4.85Roger Williams University1.800.2%1st Place
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12.78Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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13.48University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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14.75University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Rathbun | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Charles Gish | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Richardson | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meara Conley | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Grace Jones | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bourell | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Woodbury | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 10.1% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Parker Thran | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 49.2% |
| Connor McHugh | 15.1% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McNeill | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 12.6% | 15.1% | 17.9% | 16.7% | 5.8% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 20.9% | 21.7% | 11.8% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 25.9% | 28.1% |
| William Gear | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 4.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.