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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.80+3.66vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.38+3.93vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.80+1.79vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.89+3.69vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University0.93+2.39vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.35+3.66vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14-0.21vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.15-1.33vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72+3.81vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.40-4.10vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.30-4.56vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont-0.39-0.26vs Predicted
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14Harvard University0.27-4.16vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53-6.00vs Predicted
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16University of New Hampshire-1.06-2.56vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-1.61-2.18vs Predicted
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18Bates College-1.99-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.66Roger Williams University1.800.2%1st Place
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5.93University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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4.79Brown University1.800.1%1st Place
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7.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology0.890.1%1st Place
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7.39Jacksonville University0.930.1%1st Place
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9.66Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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6.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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6.67University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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12.81Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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5.9Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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6.44Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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11.74University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
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9.84Harvard University0.270.0%1st Place
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9.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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13.44University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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14.82University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
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15.44Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McHugh | 16.1% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Gish | 14.1% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Woodbury | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Parker Thran | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Buck Rathbun | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| David Vinogradov | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Jones | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McNeill | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 12.6% | 15.7% | 18.4% | 14.2% | 6.6% |
| Brayden Benesch | 9.5% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Gear | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| William Bourell | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Meara Conley | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 18.9% | 20.2% | 12.9% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 27.7% | 29.1% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 21.2% | 46.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.