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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.38+5.30vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+0.94vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.40+3.38vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.80+1.26vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+2.00vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont-0.28+5.85vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.15+0.18vs Predicted
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8Harvard University0.60+0.83vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44-2.59vs Predicted
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10University of New Hampshire-1.06+3.70vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.30-4.12vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.35-3.26vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53-4.66vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-2.05vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University0.93-8.11vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-1.61-2.12vs Predicted
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18Bates College-1.99-2.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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2.94Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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6.38Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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5.26Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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11.85University of Vermont-0.280.0%1st Place
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7.18University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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8.83Harvard University0.600.0%1st Place
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6.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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13.7University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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6.88Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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9.74Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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9.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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12.95Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.89Jacksonville University0.930.0%1st Place
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14.88University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
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15.47Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Chwalk | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Brock | 27.6% | 23.7% | 18.6% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor McHugh | 12.1% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ocean Smith | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 16.4% | 8.3% | 2.5% |
| Grace Jones | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Theresa Straw | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Karya Basaraner | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 21.0% | 20.3% | 11.6% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Buck Rathbun | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Meara Conley | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Kevin McNeill | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 19.8% | 16.5% | 7.2% |
| Parker Thran | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 27.3% | 29.9% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 21.1% | 47.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.