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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+6.05vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.38+4.33vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.73-0.06vs Predicted
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4Boston College1.30+2.78vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.40+1.27vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+3.41vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University0.93+0.95vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.15-0.90vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.80-3.73vs Predicted
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10Boston University0.35-0.23vs Predicted
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11Harvard University0.60-1.85vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont-0.28-0.36vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.06-0.33vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44-8.60vs Predicted
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16Bates College-1.99-0.61vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-4.04vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan-1.61-3.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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6.33University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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2.94Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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6.78Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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6.27Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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7.95Jacksonville University0.930.0%1st Place
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7.1University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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5.27Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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9.77Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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9.15Harvard University0.600.0%1st Place
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11.64University of Vermont-0.280.0%1st Place
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13.67University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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6.4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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15.39Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
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12.96Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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14.93University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Vinogradov | 7.5% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Brock | 29.0% | 22.3% | 17.6% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 7.6% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Meara Conley | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Parker Thran | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Grace Jones | 7.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor McHugh | 9.5% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Theresa Straw | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Ocean Smith | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 1.7% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 22.0% | 19.1% | 14.2% |
| Karya Basaraner | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 22.1% | 45.4% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 17.7% | 19.1% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 29.1% | 29.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.