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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.30+5.54vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.38+4.41vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.40+3.38vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+3.31vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+4.14vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.73-2.95vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.80-1.81vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida1.15-0.92vs Predicted
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9Harvard University0.60+0.14vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44-3.75vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.35-1.11vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University0.93-4.16vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.06+0.69vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-0.98vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.28-3.30vs Predicted
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16Bates College-1.99-0.52vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan-1.61-3.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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6.41University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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6.38Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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9.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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3.05Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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5.19Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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7.08University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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9.14Harvard University0.600.0%1st Place
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6.25Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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9.89Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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7.84Jacksonville University0.930.0%1st Place
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13.69University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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13.02Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Vermont-0.280.0%1st Place
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15.48Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
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14.91University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogelio Casellas | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 8.5% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meara Conley | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| James Brock | 27.5% | 22.1% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor McHugh | 11.3% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Jones | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Theresa Straw | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Karya Basaraner | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 6.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Parker Thran | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 14.0% | 21.0% | 20.9% | 13.0% |
| Kevin McNeill | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 20.3% | 16.9% | 6.6% |
| Ocean Smith | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 2.6% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 11.5% | 22.1% | 46.7% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 15.1% | 26.0% | 30.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.