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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.30+5.94vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+1.01vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+4.45vs Predicted
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4Boston University0.35+5.79vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.80+0.20vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.38+0.49vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University0.93+0.92vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44-1.76vs Predicted
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9Harvard University0.60+0.07vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.15-2.53vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.40-4.46vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.06+2.35vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53-3.79vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72-1.03vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont-0.39-2.77vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan-1.61-0.62vs Predicted
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17Bates College-1.99-0.92vs Predicted
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18Middlebury College-1.38-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.94Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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3.01Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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7.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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9.79Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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5.2Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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6.49University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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7.92Jacksonville University0.930.1%1st Place
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6.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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9.07Harvard University0.600.0%1st Place
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7.47University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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6.54Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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14.35University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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9.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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12.97Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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12.23University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
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15.38University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
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16.08Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
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14.69Middlebury College-1.380.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogelio Casellas | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Brock | 25.3% | 23.9% | 17.7% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Connor McHugh | 12.1% | 14.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Thran | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Karya Basaraner | 8.2% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Theresa Straw | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Grace Jones | 7.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 20.5% | 10.4% |
| Meara Conley | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 4.4% |
| William Gear | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 20.6% | 25.9% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 41.3% |
| Toby Jennings | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 19.4% | 20.2% | 14.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.