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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.80+4.32vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14+5.44vs Predicted
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3University of Vermont-0.39+9.41vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.73-1.03vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.30+1.73vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.40+0.41vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+2.29vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.38-1.59vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.35+0.89vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University0.93-1.87vs Predicted
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11Harvard University0.60-1.78vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.72+1.41vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.44-6.85vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire-1.06-0.14vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.15-7.80vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College-1.38-1.13vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-1.61-1.64vs Predicted
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18Bates College-1.99-2.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.32Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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7.44U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Vermont-0.390.0%1st Place
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2.97Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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6.73Boston College1.300.1%1st Place
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6.41Tufts University1.400.1%1st Place
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9.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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6.41University of Rhode Island1.380.1%1st Place
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9.89Boston University0.350.0%1st Place
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8.13Jacksonville University0.930.1%1st Place
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9.22Harvard University0.600.0%1st Place
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13.41Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.720.0%1st Place
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6.15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.440.1%1st Place
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13.86University of New Hampshire-1.060.0%1st Place
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7.2University of South Florida1.150.1%1st Place
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14.87Middlebury College-1.380.0%1st Place
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15.36University of Michigan-1.610.0%1st Place
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15.93Bates College-1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McHugh | 10.5% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Vinogradov | 4.7% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Gear | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 14.9% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| James Brock | 28.8% | 24.5% | 16.0% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rogelio Casellas | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Benesch | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meara Conley | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buck Rathbun | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Parker Thran | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Theresa Straw | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kevin McNeill | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 16.1% | 12.1% | 5.7% |
| Karya Basaraner | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Cataldo | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 16.9% | 15.1% | 9.1% |
| Grace Jones | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Jennings | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 18.8% | 19.5% | 17.6% |
| Calistoga Frerker | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 22.0% | 26.3% |
| Colin Kenny | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 21.9% | 38.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.