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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.64+3.91vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+4.64vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+6.13vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+1.97vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+2.91vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.33-0.32vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+0.69vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.81-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.22+4.12vs Predicted
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10Boston University1.69+1.76vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.82-3.38vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.59+0.16vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.12-6.69vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.44-5.46vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.68-3.50vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-1.12vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy0.77-2.55vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire0.35-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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6.64Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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9.13Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.97University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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5.68Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.42Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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13.12University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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11.76Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.62Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.16Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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6.31Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.54Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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11.5Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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14.88Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
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14.45Maine Maritime Academy0.770.0%1st Place
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15.32University of New Hampshire0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 15.3% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.0% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.4% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Burt | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 7.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 3.3% |
| William Michels | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 4.8% |
| Jack Egan | 10.6% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Monaghan | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 20.5% | 25.1% |
| Henri Richardsson | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 15.8% | 18.1% | 21.2% |
| Sam Harris | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 19.6% | 34.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.