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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.56vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+6.04vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+3.06vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.82+3.25vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.43+3.71vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.44+2.83vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.59+4.80vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.33-2.42vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.64-4.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-2.22vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.09-0.84vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69-0.21vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-2.85vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.12-7.88vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire0.35+0.44vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-3.00vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy0.77-2.52vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.59-3.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.04Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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6.06University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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8.71Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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8.83Boston College2.440.0%1st Place
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11.8Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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5.58Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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4.55Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.16Bowdoin College2.090.0%1st Place
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11.79Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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10.15Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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6.12Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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15.44University of New Hampshire0.350.0%1st Place
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13.0University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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14.48Maine Maritime Academy0.770.0%1st Place
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14.71Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Peter Busch | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| Guthrie Braun | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.8% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michelangelo Vecchio | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 0.6% |
| Jack Egan | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Harris | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 19.0% | 36.3% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 9.3% |
| Henri Richardsson | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 18.8% | 22.0% |
| Kevin Brooksbank | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 20.2% | 23.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.